📰 Global & Indian Stock Market Update – June 18, 2025
📊 Indian Markets Snapshot
Indian markets opened lower this morning amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a surge in crude oil prices. Early trends show risk-off sentiment prevailing across board.
| Index | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 24,788.35 | −0.26 % |
| BSE Sensex | 81,314.62 | −0.33 % |
| GIFT Nifty | ~24,833–24,852 | −30 pts |
By 9:15 AM IST, Nifty and Sensex were down 0.26 % and 0.33 % respectively, dragged by losses across 11 of 13 major sectors
🌐 Macro & Global Sentiment
Markets are deeply unsettled by the Israel–Iran conflict entering its sixth day. Analysts warn that crude oil prices, already up ~4% overnight, could surge further—drying up liquidity and elevating energy costs for import-dependent economies like India.
Meanwhile, investors globally are on edge, awaiting the Federal Reserve's 2-day policy meeting that concludes today. Concerns about possible shifts in the Fed’s guidance—especially in the dot‑plot—are keeping equity markets cautious
💱 Rupee & Commodity Markets
The Indian rupee weakened toward a 2-month low, hovering near ₹86.38–86.42 per USD, pressured by rising crude prices and capital outflows. Analysts note the RBI may intervene around ₹86.50 if depreciation continues.
Brent crude is trading near $76–76.5/barrel, a ~4–7% jump due to Middle East fears. Higher oil prices worsen India’s import bill and stoke inflation risks.
Gold prices are flat at ~$3,388/oz in Asia, as investors await the Fed decision and monitor Middle East tensions .
🏛️ Exchange & Regulatory News
Shares of BSE Ltd fell ~5% in pre-market trade after SEBI approved the change in weekly derivatives expiry from Tuesday to Thursday effective September 1, a move that may shift market share in favor of NSE .
📊 Technical & Momentum Indicators
Nifty continues to struggle around the 25,000 mark. According to ETIG data, while the index has closed above 25,000 seven times this year, it has failed to hold above that level for more than four consecutive sessions . This makes 25,000 a key resistance barrier.
Key Technical Levels
- Support: 24,700–24,650 zone—critical for downside cushioning
- Resistance: 25,000–25,170, especially as multiple tests failed in recent days
📈 Sector & Stock Highlights
Early drivers in today’s session include:
- Banks & Financials: Under pressure as HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra fall—index-weight drag from financials.
- Energy & Commodities: Oil-linked and industrial stocks down amid crude spike.
- Defensive Sectors: FMCG, Pharma & Healthcare gain modestly as investors seek shelter.
- Individual Movers: Hindustan Zinc down ~6% on block deal; see volatility in ONGC, Reliance; others like IndusInd Bank, HCL Tech showing resilience .
🔍 Expert Views & Analyst Commentary
VK Vijayakumar (Geojit): Retail investors are absorbing dips, DIIs are supporting market flows, even as FIIs sold ~₹8,080 cr over four sessions.
BofA Global Research: Elevated oil prices remain structurally bearish for rupee and inflation. Fed’s 2025 dot-plot may shift higher by ~25bps :contentReference[oaicite:13]{index=13}.
Front Wave Research: Oil and Gold spike may continue, warning against aggressive equity positions.
📌 What to Watch Going Ahead
- Middle East conflict escalation or de-escalation—crucial for crude and risk sentiment.
- Fed policy announcement (today evening IST)—Dot-plot guidance key for global equities.
- Rupee movement near ₹86.50—possible RBI intervention.
- Nifty’s sustainability above 25,000 vs drop below 24,700—watch momentum.
- Derivative expiry shift—examine BSE vs NSE volumes post Thursday expiry.
📅 Recap & Strategy Playbook
| Focus Area | Level / Trend |
|---|---|
| Global Risk | High – Middle East tensions, Fed policy uncertainty |
| Commodities | Crude stabilizing ~$76–77, Gold flat |
| Rupee | ₹86.38–86.42; watch for RBI support at ₹86.50 |
| Nifty Range | 24,700–25,170 |
Trading Strategy: Reserve long positions for dips near support (24,700–24,650). Consider hedging or short positions if Nifty fails to breach 25,000 convincingly.
Investment Approach: Focus on defensive sectors (FMCG, Pharma, Healthcare) and stocks with low oil sensitivity until geopolitical volatility subsides.
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